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Analysis of the Portuguese and Spanish NECPs using the CEVESA MIBEL market model

A. Rodrigues de Oliveira, F.A. Campos, J. Villar, S. Doménech, J. Peças, J.P. Tomé Saraiva

20th International Conference on the European Energy Market - EEM24, Estambul (Turquía). 10-12 junio 2024


Resumen:

The member states of the European Union (EU) are actively reassessing their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) [1] to jointly address climate challenges and the impacts of the COVID pandemic and gas supply crisis. This study extends the analyses described in [2] by assessing the impact of the updated NECP drafts for Portugal and Spain [3], [4] on the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). For this, we use CEVESA, a market model for the long-term planning and operation of MIBEL that computes the joint dispatch of energy and secondary reserve of the two interconnected single-price zones. Departing from the expected evolution of the electricity generation technologies and demand available in the NECP drafts, joint scenarios for Portugal and Spain are built with the latest CO2 allowances and fuel prices projections and the latest available historical data of hydro and renewable generation profiles. Simulations provide estimates for the expected market prices, technology generation dispatch, and the usage of the capacity of the interconnection lines between both countries, highlighting potential concerns and knowledge on future NECPs.


Resumen divulgativo:

Los estados de la UE revisaron los PNEC por desafíos climáticos, el COVID-19 y la crisis de gas. Este estudio analiza los PNEC de Portugal y España con el modelo CEVESA.


Palabras clave: electricity prices, interconnections, market model, national energy and climate plans, MIBEL


DOI: DOI icon https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM60825.2024.10608866

Publicado en IEEE EEM 2024, pp: 1-6, ISBN: 979-8-3503-8175-7

Fecha de publicación: 2024-08-08.



Cita:
A. Rodrigues de Oliveira, F.A. Campos, J. Villar, S. Doménech, J. Peças, J.P. Tomé Saraiva, Analysis of the Portuguese and Spanish NECPs using the CEVESA MIBEL market model, 20th International Conference on the European Energy Market - EEM24, Estambul (Turquía). 10-12 junio 2024. En: IEEE EEM 2024: Conference proceedings, ISBN: 979-8-3503-8175-7


    Líneas de investigación:
  • Escenarios energéticos de largo plazo : Escenarios energéticos de largo plazo
  • Modelos de mercados eléctricos con alta penetración de generación renovable
  • Modelos de mercados de electricidad, gas natural y gases renovables
  • Integración de energía renovable
  • Análisis de políticas energéticas sostenibles

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